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The Flip
Democrats officially overtake Republicans as the favorites for Senate control on both major platforms.
Odds Narrow
The gap between Democratic and Republican odds closes to within a margin of error on Polymarket.
Iran Tensions Escalate
Geopolitical risks in the Middle East begin to dominate the news cycle and global markets.
Republican Dominance
Republicans hold a steady 60% probability of taking the Senate on most prediction platforms.
Traders on Kalshi and Polymarket have sharply reversed their bets on U.S. Senate control, with Democrats now favored over Republicans. This significant shift in political sentiment is largely attributed to escalating geopolitical tensions in Iran, which have reshaped the risk landscape for bettors.
A sudden blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian forces has sent global equity markets into a tailspin, sparking fears of a massive energy supply disruption. As traditional markets face a liquidity crunch, the crypto sector is bracing for extreme volatility as investors weigh Bitcoin's 'safe haven' status against a broader flight to cash.