BTC Could Hit $38K in Final Bear Months Before Next Bull Run: Analyst

In a Seeking Alpha article dated June 21, 2026, independent analyst David Zanoni presents a case that Bitcoin is approaching the final months of its current bear market, forecasting a bottom near $38,000 around September 2026. This prediction is grounded in the historical four-year price cycle pattern that has characterized Bitcoin’s major corrections, notably the 2014–2015 and 2018–2019 bear markets that followed similar parabolic runs. Zanoni points to the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) as a convenient and regulated vehicle for traditional investors to gain exposure to these cycles, whether shorting the ETF during downturns or accumulating for the next bull phase. The article arrives amid a market where Bitcoin has already tumbled from its all-time high, with technical indicators on both BTC and IBIT showing potential signs of exhaustion in selling pressure. On IBIT’s weekly chart, Zanoni identifies a possible bullish divergence—a pattern where price makes a lower low while a momentum oscillator makes a higher low— though he emphasizes that confirmation from Bitcoin’s own price action is necessary before declaring a definitive bottom. The analyst acknowledges he holds a short position in IBIT via derivatives, suggesting a near‐term bearish bias, but his broader message is one of imminent opportunity. Historically, Bitcoin’s halving events, which cut the block reward in half approximately every four years, have been catalysts for supply shocks that propel bull runs. The most recent halving occurred in April 2024, and the subsequent cycle peak in late 2025 was followed by a sharp correction—a sequence Zanoni views as consistent with prior cycles. He notes that the current bear phase has already extended for roughly a year, and if history rhymes, the bottoming process should complete by early autumn 2026. Beyond technicals, the macroeconomic backdrop is mixed. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to begin loosening monetary policy later this year, which could weaken the dollar and boost risk assets like Bitcoin. However, lingering regulatory uncertainties and institutional profit‐taking have weighed on sentiment. Into this environment, Zanoni advocates a dollar‐cost averaging (DCA) strategy into either IBIT or spot Bitcoin, arguing that buying into weakness positions investors to capture outsized gains in the subsequent bull cycle. The implication for IBIT holders is significant: if the ETF follows Bitcoin’s trajectory, a bottom near $38,000 BTC could correspond to an IBIT share price in the mid‐$30s, a level that would represent a substantial discount from recent highs. Volumes in the ETF have remained elevated even during the drawdown, indicating that institutional and retail traders are actively positioning for the next move. The article’s importance lies not only in its specific price target but in its synthesis of cycle theory, technical analysis, and product‐specific trading tactics. It underscores how the maturation of Bitcoin‐related financial instruments like IBIT allows for more nuanced strategies than simple buy‐and‐hold. Should the forecast prove accurate, the months ahead may be remembered as a classic accumulation zone preceding a multi‐year bull market, potentially pushing Bitcoin to new all‐time highs by 2028 or 2029. Investors who heed such cycle analysis must, however, weigh the risk that this time could be different—accelerated institutional adoption may compress or elongate cycles, and unforeseen regulatory actions could disrupt patterns. Zanoni’s cautious approach—waiting for BTC confirmation before calling a bottom—reflects that uncertainty. Nonetheless, for those who study Bitcoin’s decade‐long history of boom and bust, the article offers a timely and data‐driven roadmap for navigating the apparent end of a bear market.