BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL: 1-Year Drawdowns 24.8%–46.8% — Which Chain Survives 2036?

Web3 builders and holders evaluating a 2036 time horizon need to separate protocol moats from price whiplash. BTC's fixed 21M supply and 20.1M circulating coins create non-dilutive scarcity, while Ethereum and Solana must convert application fee revenue into long-term token demand. XRP's payment network story has the most ground to claw back after a 46.8% one-year drawdown.

According to analysis published by 247wallst.com on September 30, 2026, Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana are all trading well below their prior-year levels even after summer rallies, forcing long-horizon investors to weigh which asset can survive and appreciate through 2036. Bitcoin is quoted around $83,070, down 24.8 percent over the past year and 34.1 percent below its October 2025 high of nearly $126,000. Ethereum trades near $2,663, down 34.2 percent, while Solana sits around $118, down 43.1 percent. XRP has been the weakest of the group, falling 46.8 percent to $1.50. Year-to-date in 2026, Bitcoin is down 5.8 percent, Ethereum 10.8 percent, Solana 6.9 percent, and XRP 18.9 percent.

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Bitcoin is quoted around $83,070, down 24.8 percent over the past year and 34.1 percent below its October 2025 high of nearly $126,000.

These figures matter because drawdown depth directly dictates the return needed just to get back to break-even. The source notes that XRP would need to rise roughly 88 percent from $1.50 to return to its previous level, while Bitcoin would need only about a 33 percent gain to regain its former high. Ethereum and Solana, with steeper declines than Bitcoin, would also require disproportionately large gains—roughly 52 percent and 76 percent, respectively, based on their reported one-year changes—which illustrates how a deeper loss compounds the difficulty of recovery. For a 10-year buy-and-hold horizon, that asymmetry is a critical underwriting variable: assets with lower drawdowns have a shorter route back to prior peaks, while those with larger drawdowns require substantially more upside before returns turn positive on a round-trip basis.

The four assets occupy distinct functional roles, and that differentiation informs their long-term durability. Bitcoin is framed primarily as a store of value with a hard-capped supply of 21 million coins, roughly 20.1 million of which are already in circulation. This scarcity is the backbone of the thesis that Bitcoin can preserve purchasing power over a decade, particularly as mining rewards continue to decline over future halving cycles. Ethereum and Solana are application platforms, meaning their long-term value depends on developer mindshare, transaction fees, and whether decentralized applications achieve durable product-market fit rather than speculative trading volume. XRP is positioned as a cross-border payment and bank-transfer network, so its fate is tied to adoption by financial institutions and payment companies, as well as regulatory clarity around its token.