Treasury Bills Identified as Primary Driver of Bitcoin Price Action

The long-held belief that Bitcoin’s price is primarily a function of the M2 money supply is being challenged by new research from Keyrock. While the correlation between broad money expansion and risk asset performance has been a staple of crypto analysis for years, Keyrock’s latest findings suggest that the mechanism is far more nuanced. Specifically, the report identifies Treasury bills (T-bills) as the primary driver of Bitcoin’s price action, highlighting a shift in how liquidity is perceived and tracked by institutional players.

The core of the argument lies in the quality and velocity of liquidity. M2 money supply includes a vast array of assets, including retail bank deposits that often remain stagnant and do not participate in the high-velocity financial markets where Bitcoin is traded. In contrast, Treasury bills function as near-cash instruments. They are highly liquid, widely used as collateral in the repo markets, and represent the most immediate form of government-backed liquidity. When the supply and demand for these short-term debt instruments shift, the ripple effects are felt almost instantly in the risk-on sectors of the economy.

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The long-held belief that Bitcoin’s price is primarily a function of the M2 money supply is being challenged by new research from Keyrock.

Keyrock’s research suggests that the flow of fresh liquidity through the economy is not uniform. When the U.S. Treasury increases its issuance of T-bills, it can effectively soak up liquidity from the private sector, potentially putting downward pressure on risk assets. Conversely, when the Treasury draws down its General Account (TGA) or shifts its debt profile away from short-term bills toward longer-dated bonds, it can release a flood of liquidity back into the system. This shadow liquidity is what ultimately finds its way into Bitcoin, which acts as a sensitive barometer for global financial conditions.

This shift in perspective has significant implications for how investors and analysts forecast Bitcoin’s future movements. Traditionally, the market has been hyper-focused on the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and interest rate decisions. However, if T-bills are indeed the primary driver, then the actions of the U.S. Treasury Department—specifically its Quarterly Refunding Announcements (QRA)—become just as, if not more, important. The QRA dictates the mix of debt the government will issue, and a heavy tilt toward T-bills can signal a different liquidity environment than a tilt toward long-term coupons.

Furthermore, the institutionalization of Bitcoin has strengthened this link. As more hedge funds and corporate treasuries add BTC to their portfolios, they treat it as part of a broader liquidity management strategy. In this framework, Bitcoin is not just digital gold but a high-beta play on the availability of collateral and cash in the global financial system. When T-bill yields are attractive or when they are in high demand for collateral, the opportunity cost and liquidity availability for Bitcoin change dynamically.

Looking forward, the market should watch for signs of liquidity pivots that originate from the Treasury rather than the Fed. If the U.S. government continues to rely heavily on short-term debt to fund its deficit, the resulting volatility in the T-bill market will likely continue to dictate Bitcoin’s price swings. For the savvy investor, the message is clear: the path to understanding Bitcoin’s next major move may not be found in the Fed’s dot plot, but in the Treasury’s issuance schedule. This evolution in market intelligence marks a maturing of the crypto space, as it becomes more deeply integrated with the plumbing of the traditional financial system.